Mortality predictors in hospitalised COVID-19 patients and the role of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies and remdesivir.

Background: In a pre-vaccination era serologic tests may be used to evaluate the seroprevalence and efficacy of containment strategies applied to the community. Subsequently, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination has successfully reduced hospitalization and admission to intensive care. The role of antiviral treatment for COVID-19 remains debated. Objective: We investigated the effect of SARS-CoV-2 IgG Spike (S) antibody responses in hospitalized patients on 30-day mortality. Finally, we assessed whether other predictive factors affected mortality after 30 days. Methods: Observational study on COVID-19 patients admitted from October 1, 2021, to January 30, 2022. Results: 520 patients were studied; 108 died at the 30-day follow-up (21%). A borderline significance for mortality was observed in favour of the high antibody titer group (24% vs 17%, p=0.05). From the univariate Cox regression analysis, a high IgG-S titer was significantly correlated to lower 30-day mortality (p=0.04, HR: 0.7; 95%CI: 0.44-0.98). The administration of remdesivir (p=0.01) and the age <65 years (p=2.3e-05) were found to be protective for the considered outcome (respectively, HR: 0.5, 95%CI: 0.34-0.86, and HR: 0.1, 95%CI: 0.04-0.30). Conclusions: S-antibodies and remdesivir could play a protecting role in increasing the survival of hospitalized COVID-19 patients who are not suffering from a critical disease. Advanced age is a risk factor for poor outcomes among infected people.

Home management of COVID-19 symptomatic patients: a safety study on COVID committed home medical teams.

To reduce the overburden in the hospital, during the COVID-19 pandemic, some "COVID Committed Home Medical Teams" (CCHTs) were created in Italy. These units consist of a small pool of general practitioners who aim to evaluate all patients with COVID-19 who require a medical examination directly at home. After the first visit (which can end with patient hospitalisation or home management), CCHTs periodically monitor the patients' clinical conditions and vital signs (usually a revaluation every 24-48 hours, except for a sudden worsening). However, this strategy - which reduces the pressure on hospitals - has never been evaluated for patient safety. Our study aims to determine whether a home-based monitoring and treatment strategy for non-severe COVID-19 patients was safe as direct hospital admission by the emergency department. We conducted a retrospective observational study about 1,182 patients admitted to the hospital for COVID-19 between September 2020 and April 2021, confronting in-hospital and 30-day mortality in both CCHT-referred (n=275) and directly admitted by emergency department (n=907). Patients assessed by the CCHT had lower in-hospital and 30-day mortality (18% vs 28%, p=0.001; and 20% vs 30%, p=0.002); but, in the propensity score matching comparison, there was no characteristic between the two groups turned out significantly different. CCHT did not correlate with in-hospital or 30-day mortality. CCHT is a safe strategy to reduce hospital overburden for COVID-19 during pandemic surges.

Rapidly progressive ischemic strokes and transient antiphospholipid syndrome during a mild SARS-CoV-2 infection.

SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with an increased risk of thrombotic events, especially during severe forms of disease. Here we describe the clinical history of a patient with a mild form of Covid-19 infection presenting with multiple cerebral ischemic lesions that evolved in an atypical way.

Epidemiology of respiratory virus before and during COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID pandemic has forcefully turned the spotlight on the importance of the diagnosis of respiratory virus infections. Viruses have always been a frequent and common cause of respiratory tract infections. Rapid molecular diagnostics applied to the diagnostics of respiratory virus infections has revolutionized microbiology laboratories only a few years ago. Few studies illustrate the epidemiology of respiratory viruses, and fewer still those that have compared the pre-pandemic to the pandemic period. During the first year of the pandemic (2020-2021) it was clear to everyone to witness a sudden disappearance of the circulation of all the other respiratory viruses, especially those typically isolated during the winter time, such as RSV and Influenza virus. In our study we wanted to verify this phenomenon and to study the epidemiology of our local reality, analyzing three consecutive flu seasons (2018-2019, 2019-2020, 2020-2021). The results lead us to note that the prevalence of positivity to respiratory virus infections went from 49.8% (2018-2019) and 39% (2019-2020) to 13.4% (2020-2021). This decrease is at least partly attributable to the security measures adopted (social distancing and mask), but it certainly opens up new scenarios when the restriction measures will be terminated. We believe such studies can provide real-world evidence of the effectiveness of public health interventions implemented during current and future pandemics.

Antimicrobial Stewardship in the Covid-19 Pandemic.

During COVID-19 pandemic, implementing and maintaining an antimicrobial stewardship protocol obtained both low rates of MDR microorganisms and low antimicrobial use in an 800-bed hospital network in northern Italy. Infectious diseases specialist consulting was crucial to maintain this protocol active.

Development and Validation of the Acute PNeumonia Early Assessment Score for Safely Discharging Low-Risk SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients from the Emergency Department.

A continuous demand for assistance and an overcrowded emergency department (ED) require early and safe discharge of low-risk severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-infected patients. We developed (n = 128) and validated (n = 330) the acute PNeumonia early assessment (aPNea) score in a tertiary hospital and preliminarily tested the score on an external secondary hospital (n = 97). The score's performance was compared to that of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). The composite outcome of either death or oral intubation within 30 days from admission occurred in 101 and 28 patients in the two hospitals, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the aPNea model was 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78-0.93) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.73-0.89) for the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The aPNea score discriminated low-risk patients better than NEWS2 at a 10% outcome probability, corresponding to five cut-off points and one cut-off point, respectively. aPNea's cut-off reduced the number of unnecessary hospitalizations without missing outcomes by 27% (95% CI, 9-41) in the validation cohort. NEWS2 was not significant. In the external cohort, aPNea's cut-off had 93% sensitivity (95% CI, 83-102) and a 94% negative predictive value (95% CI, 87-102). In conclusion, the aPNea score appears to be appropriate for discharging low-risk SARS-CoV-2-infected patients from the ED.

Artificial neural network model from a case series of COVID-19 patients: a prognostic analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: There is a need to determine which clinical variables predict the severity of COVID-19. We analyzed a series of critically ill COVID-19 patients to see if any of our dataset's clinical variables were associated with patient outcomes. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the data of COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU of the Hospital in Pordenone from March 11, 2020, to April 17, 2020. Patients' characteristics of survivors and deceased groups were compared. The variables with a different distribution between the two groups were implemented in a generalized linear regression model (LM) and in an Artificial Neural Network (NN) model to verify the "robustness" of the association with mortality. RESULTS: In the considered period, we reviewed the data of 22 consecutive patients: 8 died. The causes of death were a severe respiratory failure (3), multi-organ failure (1), septic shock (1), pulmonary thromboembolism (2), severe hemorrhage (1). Lymphocyte and the platelet count were significantly lower in the group of deceased patients (p-value 0.043 and 0.020, respectively; cut-off values: 660/mm3; 280,000/mm3, respectively). Prothrombin time showed a statistically significant trend (p-value= 0.065; cut-off point: 16.8/sec). The LM model (AIC= 19.032), compared to the NN model (Mean Absolute Error, MAE = 0.02), was substantially alike (MSE 0.159 vs. 0.136). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU, lymphocytopenia, thrombocytopenia, and lengthening of prothrombin time were strictly correlated with higher mortality. Additional clinical data are needed to be able to validate this prognostic score.

Diagnostic performance of an automated chemiluminescence immunoassay for SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM antibodies detection: A real life experience.

BACKGROUND: Recently many serological assays for detection of antibodies to SARS-COV-2 virus were introduced on the market. Aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic performance of an automated CLIA for quantitative detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies. METHODS: A total of 354 sera, 89 from consecutive patients diagnosed with COVID-19 (43 mild, 32 severe and 13 critical) and 265 from asymptomatic and negative on rRT-PCR testing healthcare workers, were evaluated for IgM and IgG anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies with MAGLUMI immunoassay. RESULTS: The overall sensitivity and specificity were 86.5% (95%CI: 77.6-92.8) and 98.5% (95%CI:96.2-99.6), respectively. PPV, PPN, LR+, LR- and OR were 95.1 (95%CI: 87.8-98.6), 95.6 (95%CI: 92.4-97.7), 57.3 (95%CI: 21.6-152.1), 7.3 (95%CI: 4.31-12.4) and 418.6 (95%CI: 131.2-1335.2), respectively. The levels of SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies were 1.22 â€‹± â€‹1.2 AU/mL and 15.86 â€‹± â€‹24.83 AU/mL, 2.86 â€‹± â€‹2.4 AU/mL and 69.3 â€‹± â€‹55.5 AU/mL, 2.47 â€‹± â€‹1.33 AU/mL and 83.9 â€‹± â€‹83.9 AU/mL in mild, severe and critical COVID-19 groups, respectively. A significant difference in antibody levels between mild and severe/critical subjects has been shown. CONCLUSIONS: The CLIA assay showed good diagnostic performance and a significant association between antibody levels and severity of the disease was found.

Classification and analysis of outcome predictors in non-critically ill COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-infected patients who could develop a severe form of COVID-19 must be considered of great importance to carry out adequate care and optimise the use of limited resources. AIMS: To use several machine learning classification models to analyse a series of non-critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to a general medicine ward to verify if any clinical variables recorded could predict the clinical outcome. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed non-critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted to the general ward of the hospital in Pordenone from 1 March 2020 to 30 April 2020. Patients' characteristics were compared based on clinical outcomes. Through several machine learning classification models, some predictors for clinical outcome were detected. RESULTS: In the considered period, we analysed 176 consecutive patients admitted: 119 (67.6%) were discharged, 35 (19.9%) dead and 22 (12.5%) were transferred to intensive care unit. The most accurate models were a random forest model (M2) and a conditional inference tree model (M5) (accuracy = 0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.90, for both). For M2, glomerular filtration rate and creatinine were the most accurate predictors for the outcome, followed by age and fraction-inspired oxygen. For M5, serum sodium, body temperature and arterial pressure of oxygen and inspiratory fraction of oxygen ratio were the most reliable predictors. CONCLUSIONS: In non-critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to a medical ward, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine and serum sodium were promising predictors for the clinical outcome. Some factors not determined by COVID-19, such as age or dementia, influence clinical outcomes.

Canakinumab as treatment for COVID-19-related pneumonia: A prospective case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: Canakinumab is an IL-1ß antibody that neutralises the activity of IL-1ß. This study examined the efficacy and safety of canakinumab in patients with moderate COVID-19-related pneumonia. DESIGN: This study aimed to evaluate the reduction in duration of hospitalisation with adequate oxygen status. Forty-eight patients with moderate COVID-19-related pneumonia were asked to participate in the prospective case-control study: 33 patients (cases) signed informed consent and received canakinumab (Cohort 1) and 15 patients (Controls) refused to receive the experimental drug and received institutional standard of care (Cohort 2). RESULTS: Hospital discharge within 21 days was seen in 63% of patients in Cohort 1 vs. 0% in Cohort 2 (median 14 vs. 26 days, respectively; p < 0.001). There was significant clinical improvement in ventilation regimes following administration of canakinumab compared with Cohort 2 (Stuart-Maxwell test for paired data, p < 0.001). Patients treated with canakinumab experienced a significant increase in PaO2:FiO2 (p < 0.001) and reduction in lung damage by CT (p = 0.01), along with significant decreases in immune/inflammation markers that were not observed in Cohort 2. Only mild side-effects were seen in patients treated with canakinumab; survival at 60 days was 90.0% (95% CI 71.9-96.7) in patients treated with canakinumab and 73.3% (95% CI 43.6-89.1) for Cohort 2. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with canakinumab in patients with COVID-19-related pneumonia rapidly restored normal oxygen status, decreased the need for invasive mechanical ventilation, and was associated with earlier hospital discharge and favourable prognosis versus standard of care.